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Wednesday, March 31, 2004Bill James on Dennis MillerBill James was on the very funny Dennis Miller show (on CNBC) today. He was introduced by the comiedian as "The Godfather of Fantasy Baseball," which is a little like calling John Kerry a mere political activist. Anyway, here are a few of the better moments in the short interview:
Scioscia sets rotationRamon Ortiz has beaten out Aaron Sele for the fifth spot in the Angels rotation. Well, "beaten out" might no be quite accurate, as Sele defiantly had the better spring (3.21 ERA to 7.23 ERA for Ortiz). I really should have an opinion on this, but I don't. If it was my choice I would have gone with Shields or Gregg, but both of those guys were out of the question from the start. When it comes down to Sele and Ortiz it really doesn't matter, because neither can be trusted to go out there and win you a game every fifth day. Tuesday, March 30, 2004Over-react much?.617%. 1/162. One game, one drop in the ocean. The Yankees lost to the Devil Rays last night (or this morning, depending on your point of view) and you would think that it was a one-game playoff in September, not opening day in March. Here is the immense over-reaction from ESPN: A headline on the front page proclaimed: "Yankees off to a bad start." Ok, losing your first game is not the ideal way to start a season, but one can hardly label a teams "start" as bad after seeing one game, in another country, in the middle of spring training. One game shouldn't even qualify as a start! Then the MLB front page links to this Buster Olney article with the claim "Buster Olney says [the Devil Rays win] shows the Yankees still have some holes." It shows no such thing, and Olney claimed no such thing. That is ridiculous sensationalism from the editors of ESPN.com. Of course that's just one media outlet overreacting. Surely the general public can't feel the same way. Wrong- check out the results from this Sportsnation Poll: 6) Which team will be the biggest flop? Yankees- 21.8% Mariners- 16.7% A's- 13.1% Phillies- 12.2% Angels- 10.6% Astros- 9.7% Cubs- 9.0% Red Sox- 6.9% 7) Which team will be the biggest surprise? Tampa Bay- 28.1% Baltimore- 20.2% New York Mets- 11.5% Los Angeles- 11.0% Detroit- 8.4% Colorado- 7.7% Montreal- 5.3% Cincinnati- 3.7% Milwaukee- 2.2% Pittsburgh- 2.2% So based on one game 21.8% of those who voted think that the Yankees will be a flop. The Yankees. That team with what is most likely the greatest lineup ever assembled. And based on that same game 28.1% of those who responded think that the Devil Rays will be this year's big surprise. The Devil Rays. That team with at best five bona-fide major leaguers. This is the kind of thing that can make you really lose faith in your fellow man. Angels sign Japanese reliever MizuoToday the Angels signed Japanese lefty Yoshitaka Mizuo to a one-year deal that could be worth as much as $335,000. Mizuo, 35, has spent the last 12 years in the Japanese leagues, appearing in 296 games compiling a 3.42 ERA. His K/9 of .697 is decent, but not spectacular for a reliever. He is considerd a control pitcher with a slider, sinker, changeup and a low 90's fastball. He will start the season at AAA Salt Lake, though the Angels official website hinted that he could take Brendan Donnelly's roster spot to start the season. The Pepsi conspiracyIt's opening day!... night... whatever. I've decided to stay up for the entire game if I can, but it's going to be a struggle. See, I'm going all-natural these days, meaning no caffeine. As Lloyd Bridges said: "I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue." I gave it up a few months back (which was brutal for a guy who used to drink 2 liters of Mountain Dew a day) after I found myself quaking at a funeral. For the first few days I suffered through some epic headaches and was constantly tired, but then came the breakthrough! Once you fight through the withdrawals you start to feel so good... run a marathon good. I strongly encourage anyone who suffers from caffeine addiction to kick the habit- it'll do you wonders. Anyway, for the last few months I've been drowning myself in various orange sodas and root beers, but on a recent trip to the soda isle I grabbed a bottle of caffeine-free Pepsi. I've always hated people who drink this crap, I mean it can't be any good can it? I figured if you're going to drink caffeine-free Pepsi, just drink water! Man was I wrong. This stuff kicks ass! It tastes just like the real thing, which raises the question: Do they take caffeine out of caffeine-free Pepsi, or put caffeine in regular Pepsi? I think we may have a conspiracy on our hands... Monday, March 29, 2004Daily rundownPitching dominates, Angels win: Angels pitching dominated the Giants on Sunday, as they won 3-0 in Scotsdale. Washburn started the game and went 6-1/3 innings, allowing just 5 hits. He was relived by Scot Sheilds who threw 1-2/3 perfect innings. Sheilds gave way to Kevin Gregg in the ninth, who struckout one on his way to the save. The win was the Angel's 13th of the exibition season, bringer their record to 13-12-1. Halos on TV: You can see the Angels take on the Cubs on ESPN at 12:00. (Pacific) Can't stop the bleeding: Brendan Donnely was re-hospitalized after having his fourth nose surgery in two weeks. He returned to camp on Saturday after doctors preformed an operation to stop persistent nosebleeds, but the bleeding returned Sunday night. He will almost certainly start the season on the DL, with Kevin Gregg the most likely to take his roster spot. Indians out of Sele sweepstakes: Ben Maller reports that Indians GM Mark Shapiro had been in talks with the Angels for starter Aaron Sele, but was scared off by heath concerns and his $8.5 million price-tag. This is the first I've heard of the tribe's interest, but it seems like a plausible rumor. Why? Somehow D-Rays GM Chuck LaMar got a two-year extension. He's been on the job since 1995 and the Rays have never sniffed .500. You hear these stories about how he's scared to talk to guys like Billy Beane and you wonder how he's kept his job this long. Saturday, March 27, 2004Trade winds reaching gale forceIt's looking more and more as though Aaron Sele is on his way out of town, and we are starting to get some very specific rumors as to where and how. Red Sox Haven has Sele headed to Boston in exchange for Ramiro Mendoza, who would promptly be released. I think the Halos would jump at that one, as it would net them a cool $4.75 million. That seems like an awfully steep price to pay if you're a Sox fan, but they could use the pitching depth. As for this rumor reported by Chronicles, I don't think it even requires a response. It is interesting however, as I didn't know it was possible to shovel crap that high. Daily rundownAngels win nail-biter: The Angels and Padres went back-and-forth on Friday, with the Angels coming out on top 9-8. Both clubs' starters were knocked around in the early innings. John Lackey gave up 5 earned runs on 5 hits in his 4 innings of work. Brian Lawrence gave up 7 runs on 13 hits in his 5-2/3 innings for the Padres. The game was tied going into the bottom of the ninth when Josh Paul hit walk-off RBI double for the halos. Kevin Gregg had pitched a scoreless top of the inning and got the win, his second of the spring. Garret Anderson had three RBIs in his return to the lineup. The win brings the Angel's Cactus League record to 12-11-1. They will stay in Tempe to host the San Francisco Giants today, with Bartolo Colon getting the start. New television deal signed: Arte Moreno fulfilled another one of his promises to the fans yesterday when the Angels announced that 28 games have been added to the television schedule. The games will be aired on Fox Sports Net. That brings the total number of televised games this season to 124, which is 38 too few and (I believe) the lowest number in all of baseball. It is truly ridiculous that a team in the second-largest media market in the nation, with real star power, and that has recently won a championship has to beg to get their games televised. But this is the way that the LA media treats Orange County- you'd think that the world ended at Long Beach when you watch the local weather. Trunbow re-assigned: Right-hander Derrick Turnbow was sent to minor-league camp yesterday. Turnbow was thought to be a lock for the Angel's pen before the signings of Colon and Escobar. He didn't do much to earn a spot this spring, going 0-2 with a 8.00 ERA in 9 innings. Expect to see him back with the big club if/when Aaron Sele/Ramon Ortiz is traded. Scioscia's G-String: Mike Scioscia finally set the middle of his revamped lineup Friday, and the G-String will remain intact! He confirmed that Guerrero will bat third, followed by Garret Anderson, Troy Glaus, Jose Guillen, and Tim Salmon. Kerry on the economy: Check out my thoughts on John Kerry's "plan" to improve the economy on my political blog. Friday, March 26, 2004Sickles on CallaspoESPN's John Sickles has a very breif write-up of Angels prospect Alberto Callaspo in his current "Down on the Farm". Check it out. Daily rundownKissing your sister: Ramon Ortiz struggled once again as the Angels and Royals played to an 8-8 tie in Surprise, Arizona. Ortiz gave up 4 runs on 6 hits in his 4 innings of work. That brings his spring ERA to 7.50. I suppose that if I had a choice between Sele and Ortiz in the rotation I would have to choose Sele, though neither are what you would call exciting options. On the bright side, Tim Salmon broke out of his spring slump going 3-4 with a homerun, triple, and 3 RBI. Back to Tempe: John Lackey will start against the San Diego Padres today in Tempe. Guillen, Anderson, and Guerrero are all expected to play after getting Thursday's game off. Appier still fuming: The OC Register reports that Kevin Appier still feels ill will toward the Angels for releasing him last year. I don't know why- he seemed to be miserable in his time with Anaheim (he certainly pitched like someone who didn't want to stick around) and Moreno is still paying him that outrageous Mets salary. His anger over the Angels not having his arm checked out is such crap. If you don't say you're injured, why would a team send you to a doctor? I get being a competitor and playing through pain, but if your arm is messed-up you need to tell someone. Oh, and he thinks Sele going to have a "breakout" year this season. On a personal note: I've got an itch under my toenail, and it's driving me INSANE! Fearless PredictionsEvery blogger has to do it (it’s required by law), so here are my predictions for the 2004 season: American League: East:
Central:
West:
MVP: Manny Ramirez National League: East:
The Phils’ run away with this one. The Mets, Braves, and Marlins are basically interchangeable. As for the Expos, it’s a real shame that a team that has put up an incredible fight over the past two seasons has been jerked around by the league like this. They had a title-run in them, but not anymore. Central:
This should be the best race in baseball this year. The Cubs and the Astros should have a knockdown drag-out the entire season with the loser getting the Wild Card. The Cards could join the in if they get their hands on some pitching (Benson? Sele?), and the other three are just embarrassing West:
MVP: Scott Rolen World Series: New York Yankees over Philiadelphia Thursday, March 25, 2004Introducing: "Pudding" Anderson?I just got an e-mail from a guy named Joe on the subject of nicknames. Apparently ESPN's Page 2 is looking for a nickname for Garret Anderson. Often the Angel's broadcasters call him "G.A.", but that shows the creativity of stump. Joe suggests "Pudding"- because he's so smooth. I like that, but it's a little soft for someone of Garret's temperament. So that got me thinking about possible nicknames, but nothing really came to mind. Suddenly I remembered that in his Historical Baseball Abstract, Bill James covers the history of nicknames, so as an interesting diversion I started to thumb through it. I didn't find any nicknames that seemed appropriate, but I did come across a write-up of an old-Negro Leaguer by the name of Willard Brown. In 1947 Brown became one of the first black men to play in the American League (and the first to hit a homerun in the AL) with the St. Louis Browns. Here is a direct quote from Bill James:
"Relaxed, casual player, often accused (perhaps unfairly) of not hustling."
Sound like anyone we know? Unfortunately Willard Brown didn't have a nickname we can hijack, but how about we start calling Garret "the new Willard Brown"? No? Well then you come up with something smartass...Non-baseball: Clarke and the 9/11 Commission...Note: This post originally appeared on my political blog. I have archived it here for posterity's sake.
This whole Richard Clark thing just comes off as sour grapes to me. He freely admits that both Clinton and Bush were lacking in urgency in regard to al Qaeda (not to mention the first Bush), yet his attacks seem to be focused on the current administration. By the way, what do all three of these presidents have in common in their fight against terrorism? Clark was the antiterrorism chief under all three. Sounds like a condemnation of his own abilities rather then one of the White House. I know some will charge that it is the media, and not Clarke, that is using his book and testimony to focus attention on Bush, and that Clarke himself has shown no real partisan grudge here. However the very timing of his book is a focused attack on the president. Forget that it was released in an election cycle- the fact that it was released at all is a slap in the face. Time was that advisors to the president who were unceremoniously relieved of their duties would wait for the term to end to write their tell-all. Clark might not be an ideologue, but he certainly doesn't like Bush. Personally I see no reason not to take Clarke at his word. He seems like a man who knows what he's talking about. Did the last three administrations drop the ball on terrorism? Yes. Was al Qaeda high on the current administration's to-do list? No, and given the knowledge we had at the time it should not have been. The intelligence both Clinton and Bush were working under stated that al Qaeda was the single largest threat to US interests overseas, and posed virtually no threat to the US itself. Bush has done nothing wrong here, and any sensible person can see it. Clarke himself sees it. It was a simple case of underestimating the enemy- it has happened before and will happen again. Simply put there was no way to prevent 9/11. How many people really thought that terrorism was the number one threat to our nation on September 10, 2001? We were a sleeping nation, and unfortunately it takes a tragedy like 9/11 or Pearl Harbor to wake us. As for the political ramifications, they seem minimal. We're to far from November for this to still be a talking point, and rational voters are going to see that there was very little that could have been done to prevent 9/11. The panel will ultimately come to the conclusion that we have all come to; everyone is to blame- Bush, Clinton, Clarke, Republicans, Democrats, the CIA and the Pentagon. The administration will come out relatively unscathed due to their current efforts to fight terror. There is only one lasting impact I see from the controversy's fallout. This may deal these non-partisan experts (that are often holdovers from one administration to the next) a deathblow, and that may damage the war on terror in the long-run. As the wonderful Nora Lassen pointed out on Special Report w/ Brit Hume, if presidents don't feel they can trust these people, they will be less willing to keep them around. And with the obvious lapses in communication between intelligence agencies and the White House, these guys can be invaluable to the war on terror in the future. That seems to be the only lasting effect this will have. Tick-tock, Mr. Clarke- your 15 minutes are almost up... Daily rundownAngels win: Kelvim Escobar had his best performance of the spring, allowing one run in 4 2/3 with six strikeouts, and the Angels won 8-7 over the Cubs. Anaheim jumped out to a 7-1 lead after three on the strength of the G-String; Garret Anderson and Jose Guillen both had RBI doubles and Troy Glaus hit a monster homerun to dead center. The cubs came back however, roughing up Troy Percival and Kevin Gregg in the late innings. Trenidad Hubbard scored the tying run in the top of the ninth on a Casey Kopitzke sacrifice. In the bottom of the inning minor-leaguer Howard Kendrick, who had just been called up before the game, hit a bases-loaded single off Jamey Wright for the win. The win brings the Angel’s Cactus League record back to .500 (11-11). Today they travel to Surprise, Arizona for the first time to take on the Royals. Ramon Ortiz will get the start. Angels acquire Esslinger: The Angels pulled the trigger on a minor trade yesterday, getting RHP Cam Esslinger from the Rockies for cash considerations. Tony Reagins, the Angel’s farm director, said that Esslinger, 27, will compete for a middle-relief role in Salt Lake this season. What are they going to do with a closer? ESPN reports that the Detroit Tigers are close to signing Ugueth Urbina to a one-year $3.5m deal. Are you kidding me? What does a 60-win team need a closer for? This is why the Tigers are the worst franchise in baseball. Richard Clarke and the 9-11 commission: Check out my thoughts on Richard Clarke and the 9-11 commission on my political blog. Wednesday, March 24, 2004Daily rundownSele trade nears The OC Register reports that a trade involving Aaron Sele could happen in the next week. The most interested team appears to be St. Louis (I called that one), but they may be more interested in Pittsburgh's Kris Benson. Other The G-String Awhile back I commented on the possibility that the Angels lineup could go Guerrero, Garret, Glaus, and Guillen, and that a coincidence like that required a good nickname. Well, today the OC Register (same link as above) all but confirmed that the lineup will bat those guys 3-4-5-6, so I'm going to debut the best of the required I recieved. Rich Lederer (yes, that Rich Lederer) came up with what was by far the best suggestion: "The G-String." Reading material Chronicles links to the "2004 Talent Rankings" from Baseball America, and the "Team Health Report" from BP. Those should give you your Angel's fix for the day. Now that's perssuasive advertising!Arte Moreno’s push to make the Angels the top franchise in all of Southern California (link via Rob) has been the subject of much debate lately. We all know that Moreno made his fortune in the outdoor advertising industry, so I guess it’s only natural that he use all kinds of modern marketing strategies, like this walking billboard:  Hell, I'm sold! That gorgeous creature is, of course, Alicia Silverstone at the premiere of her new "movie" Scooby Doo 2. I could have sworn that the first one bombed, but it must have made enough cash to justify another one. Tuesday, March 23, 2004Daily rundownSele strong in victory Today's win over the Brewers was our first glimpse of the new and improved Angels lineup, as all nine projected starters appeared together for the first time. Jose Guillen continued his red-hot spring with a three-run blast in the first, which was followed by an Anderson RBI double. Vladimir Guerrero also contributed with a two-run homerun in the fifth to put the Angels in front 7-0. Aaron Sele started the game and kept the Brewers off the board for eight innings, allowing only four hits. It was Sele's best performance of the spring, and could raise his value if/when the Angels decide to trade him. Milwaukee scored two late runs to make the final 7-2. The win snapped Anaheim's four-game losing streak and brings their record to 10-11. Technical difficulties Angelfire, which is where I host the images for this blog, is apparently having some technical difficulties. Unfortunately there's not much I can do but wait for them to get their act together, but thanks for the heads up you guys who contacted me. The doctrine of karmic retribution? Check out my comments on the assassination of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin on my political blog. Non-baseball: The policy of karmic retribution?Note: This post originally appeared on my political blog. I have archived it here for posterity's sake.
Israel assassinated Sheikh Ahmed Yassin on Sunday. Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy: Yassin founded the terrorist organization Hamas and was directly responsible for the deaths of thousands of Israelis through suicide bombings. Did Yassin deserve to be offed? Of course- the man was a brutal murderer. (Although he fashion with witch he meet his end was the definition of the word "overkill." Seriously, I think a chopper firing three hellfire missiles to take a dude who is confined to a wheelchair is a bit much.) I would have done the deed myself if I had the chance. But does his demise help the Israelis in anyway? I can't see how. The death of one man is not going stop anybody from strapping a bomb to his or her chest. It won't cause an escalation in conflict either (how could it escalate any further?), despite the threats from Palestinians. (This reminds me of a documentary I saw about Islamic extremists awhile back. In it they were interviewing a group of ex-Taliban fighters who were still putting up resistance in Afghanistan (when they weren't sitting on their porch giving interviews), and the question was asked "if being a martyr is your ultimate goal, why aren't you all dead?" The men responded with elaborate stories about how close they had come to killing themselves, but it never seemed to work- Allah had obviously chosen not to let them die at that point in time. Yeah... right. Very few of these people have the balls to put their money where their mouth is.) As far as security is concerned it seems to be a wash. The damage done to Hamas may be substantial, but it is only temporary. Militarily there are no advantages. So if Israel gains nothing militarily with this strike, why do it? I would like to think it was purely karmic retribution, but I doubt it. It's likely that Sharon has some sort of nefarious plot in mind when he does these things. What his ultimate goal is I could not say. Maybe he wants to raise tensions with Hamas and Hezbollah to the point where the US would have no choice but to intervene. Maybe he sees some sort of bargaining chip in all this. Whatever the Israeli's goal is, I'm not sure this is the right way to go about it. These days the media makes the world go round. The media are 100% responsible for the way the (civilized) world perceives you. This is not helping the perception that Israel needs to win support from fair-weather European allies. The karmic retribution thing doesn't go over well in Europe. It ties in with their overwhelming opposition to the death penalty- they don't get that some people just deserve to die. Israel needs to be seen as the good guy- a peaceful, progressive democracy surrounded by a sea of evil. I'm not saying Israel can't defend itself, but these "out of nowhere" attacks are bad for business. How hard would it have been to wait for the next suicide bomber to strike, then take out Yassin? Even if he wasn't directly involved it would be seen as provoked. They just need to be smarter in these things. All this gets me thinking; are we following a doctrine of preemption in this country, or a doctrine of karmic retribution? Either way you slice it we're on the right path. Monday, March 22, 2004Gammons on the AL WestPeter Gammons breaks down the AL West for ESPN.com. Show me all the EWSL and PECOTA projections you want, but when Peter Gammons says something I tend to believe it. Daily rundownMore reassignments Five more players were reassigned to minor league camp: LHP Dusty Bergman and Pete Zamora, 1B uber-prospect Casey Kotchman, SS Brian Specht, and C Tom Gregorio. Coming into camp both Bergman and Zamora had very slim shots at taking a place as the lone-lefthander in the Angel's pen, but I guess they failed to impress. Specht was probably the surprise of the spring, hitting .371. That should earn him substantial playing time in Salt Lake this season. Molina, Anderson back in action Bengie Molina and Garret Anderson both returned to the Angel's lineup over the weekend. Molina had been suffering from tightness in both hamstrings that caused him to miss 15 games. Anderson is still battling shoulder tendinitis, but made his first appearance of the spring on Saturday. He was held out of Sunday's game so he could get two more days of rest. Jose Guillen has also been suffering from a rib-cage injury, but you wouldn't know it to look at him: he is batting .407 with 5 HR and 10 RBI- all team highs. Brendan Donnelly's broken nose is a bit more serious however. He underwent his third surgery in two weeks to "cauterize blood vessels in his nose." There is no timetable for his return. He could conceivably start the season on DL. Cookie pushers The Girl Scouts of America (or as I like to call them "the OPEC of the baked-goods industry") are once again pushing their delicious drug on the general public. As I write this, empty boxes of "Thin Mints" (which have the addictive quality of crack cocaine, coffee, and nicotine all in one) surround me, and all I can think about is where I can find a box "Frosted Oatmeal" cookies, which have, sadly, been discontinued. And just like OPEC, they make us Californians pay more! I'm outraged- yet helpless to stop myself. It is a vicious cycle... Sunday, March 21, 2004Colon struggles early, Angels loseStarter Bartolo Colon gave up a 3-run homerun to Mike Sweeney in the first, and Kansas City made the lead stick, winning by a final of 3-2. Colon allowed a total of 7 hits, but did strikeout 5 in his 4 innings of work. Sheilds, Percival, Webber, and Turnbow kept the Royals off the board for the rest of the game. The Angels offence was unable to capitalize on the solid pitching, going hitless until a 6th inning Eckstein single. He later scored on an error. Anaheim's second run came in the 7th on a Jose Guillen homerun, his 5th of the spring. The loss brings the Angels record to 9-11 this spring. The team has the day off tomorrow before hosting the Brewers on Tuesday. Saturday, March 20, 2004Starting slowThe Angels have been hovering around .500 this spring, and that really tells the story. They've been winning half their games by playing half the game of baseball. The offence has been excellent all spring (the new comers, Guerrero (.320) and Guillen (.417, 4 HR), have been especially impressive) but the pitching has been sorely lacking. They have allowed 133 runs in 19 Cactus League games. That's 7 runs a game! Going into camp it was clear that four of the five rotation spots were locked up by Bartolo Colon, Jarrod Washburn, Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey. The conventional wisdom was that the fifth-and-final spot would be decided by an open competition between veterans Aaron Sele and Ramon Ortiz. There are also two other names in the mix: Scot Shields, who impressed as a starter in the second half of last season, and Kevin Gregg, who impressed in a mid-season call-up (1.05 WHIP in 24.2 innings). Lets look at how these eight guys have preformed thus far:
Obviously it's too early to start drawing conclusions, but those numbers are pretty ugly. All these guys (with the exception of Gregg) have had the same problem: big innings. Unfortunately Gregg probably won't get much of a chance to prove himself this spring because the Angels are trying to showcase Sele and Ortiz for a possible trade. He is really the only guy who looks like he wants that fifth spot. Daily rundownAngels lose The Angels spring record dropped to .500 this spring with a 8-5 loss to Oakland. Romon Ortiz started the game and continued to struggle as he allowed 4 runs over three innings of work. Jose Guillen and Troy Glaus hit back-to-back homeruns off Rincon in the sixth to tie the game at four, but Bobby Jenks was unable to hold the A's offense and was given the loss. Glaus' shot apparently cleared the billboards at Phoenix Municipal Stadium, a feat rarely accomplished. Next up the Angels head to Scottsdale to face the San Francisco Giants. Injury update: The nagging injuries that have cost Garret Anderson (shoulder tendinitis), Bengie Molina (leg), Brendan Donnelly (broken nose), and Jose Guillen (ribs) substantial time this spring all seem to be near one hundred percent. In fact, we could see the four play on the same field for the first time this weekend. Guillen played in yesterday's game and didn't show any signs of a rib injury when he hit a three-run blast off Ricardo Rincon. Brendan Donnelly's return was pushed back due to persistent nosebleeds, and he is expected to see his first action soon. Anderson and Molina have yet to see game action this spring, but both have been taking batting practice and hitting off a tee for a few days. More reassignments: The Angels reassigned five players, including uber-prospects Jeff Mathis, Dallas McPherson, and Bobby Jenks after Friday's loss. McPherson struggled with his first taste of big-league pitching, hitting just .152 in 15 games. Mathis fared better, hitting .455 with a homerun in 8 games behind the plate. Both will start the year in AA Arkansas. Jenks pitched 11 2/3 innings this spring (tops for the team) with a miniscule 1.54 ERA. However his accompanying 6/7 K/BB ratio was unimpressive- especially for a guy with a 100-mph fastball. He will be a starter in AAA Salt Lake this season. Also being sent down were right-handers Steve Green and Steve Andrade. Thank God it's on the other side of town The Dodger blogosphere is full of intrigue as a battle rages between 6-4-2 and Dodger Kid. Its something of a holy war over differing interpretations of the book Moneyball. Look close enough and you'll even see a thinly veiled death-threat! Friday, March 19, 2004Kobe in Anaheim?ESPN's Mark Stein thinks that the best place for Kobe Bryant to be is the Clippers, and the best place for the Clippers to be is in Anaheim. It makes sense for Kobe, as he has a home in Newport Beach and is apparently good friends with both Corey Magette and Mike Dunleavy. As for the Clips in OC, the very thought of it makes me tingle. The Pond could be very quiet this year with the NHL work-stoppage looming, so why not move in to fill the void? Daily rundownScary stuff: Baseball Prospectus has me hiding under the bed. Rob, over at 6-4-2 has his own take on these ugly PECOTA projections, so go check that out. The scary thing is that EWSL has come to a similar conclusion, projecting that the Halos will win about 86 games. Both projections have their problems, but still it is disturbing to say the least. Rob made the best point however when he pointed out the fact that "they sure as heck didn't predict the Angels to win it all in 2002." Getting closer to 25: The Angels re-assigned OF Gary Johnson and 3B Dallas McPherson. McPherson had a very disappointing spring, batting just .125 in 15 games. Not a great way to make a first impression on the manager. Johnson was once considered a strong possibility for the 5th outfielder spot, but with the outfield getting quite a bit more crowded this off-season he was pushed down the depth chart. One last thing: Check out my thoughts on Russian president Vladimir Putin on Neo-Conservative Daily. Non-baseball: Putin: necessary evil?Note: This post originally appeared on my political blog. I have archived it here for posterity's sake.
Vladimir Putin was re-elected by an overwhelming margin on Monday, and Russia officially slipped back into an authoritarian dictatorship. Putin has all but crowned himself Emperor, possibly for life, and has denied the people of Russia democracy once again. What's more, the people of Russia don't seem to care. Maybe it's because they've never had a real election, so this sham is good enough in their eyes. Maybe they are so novice in the ways of a free society they can't see when they're being lied to. Or maybe they just don't care either way, willing to go with the flow, comforted by the fact that they've all lived through this sort of thing before. Putin is a hard nut to crack. While I am disgusted by the way he has twice scammed the Russian people, I am fairly certain that he is a good leader for Russia. He seems like the right mix of KGB agent and reformer. He's been able to keep the hard-liners in check while increasing the liberty of the Russian people in many ways. That is why he is so popular on the streets of Russia- things are better then they were. Is he "70% of the vote" popular? No, but when you run the major media not a lot of criticism gets thrown your way. Obviously Russia still has massive problems in just about every level of society. Whether it's corporate corruption, crippling poverty, or a woefully under-funded and under-trained military sitting on the world's second largest nuclear arsenal, I've got to say I rather impressed it just hasn't completely fallen apart. Let's be honest- how many of us thought this whole democracy/free-market thing would work this well in Russia? None, save the most optimistic I would think. If Putin and his cronies in the Duma keep up the reforms (and eventually stop rigging elections) this may turn out to be a benevolent dictatorship, ultimately good for democracy in Russia. But that brings up a great question: Is a measure of authoritarian rule acceptable if it is benign and ultimately leads to a true democracy? The libertarian in me screams no, but the realist in me knows better. The transition from brutal Soviet oppression to socially liberal democracy is not something that can be taken in one leap. We don't expect it from the Iraqis today, so why did we expect it from the Russians in the early 90's? By all accounts Putin is committed to reform, and now that he has a puppet Duma to back him up the reforming might get done a little faster. So as long as he isn't putting political dissenters in prison(well, anymore anyway), or taking Russia backwards, I suppose he is a necessary evil. Thursday, March 18, 2004Angels lose slugfestThe Angels and Cubs combined for 19 runs at Mesa's HoHoKam Park (<-- best name ever!), with Chicago coming out 12-7 winners. Kelvim Escobar (4 ER in 4 innings), Scot Shields (5 ER in 2 innings), and Ben Webber (2 ER in 1 inning) were all pounded as Chicago jumped out to a 7-run lead after 6. The Angels offense was unable to cover the difference, though Jeff Mathis had a two-RBI pinch-hit double and Brian Gordon hit a two-run homerun. Gordon was a late replacement for Jose Guillen, who is still out with a rib injury. Brendan Donnelly was also set to make his return from a broken nose Thursday, but a nosebleed held him back. The loss dropped the Halo's Cactus League record to 9-8. Tomorrow they head to Phoenix to face division rivals, the Oakland A's. Random thoughts:I don't want to be too stathead here, but this is a problem. Here's what Mike Scioscia had to say about Darin Erstad after he hit his first homerun of the spring: "He killed that ball -- it was way out," Scioscia said of the homer off Colorado's Jason Jennings. "But to show you the versatility of Ersty, the next time up it's a hit-and-run and he gets the ball down on the ground and moves the runner over for us." Is he saying that a homerun and a slow roller to short are even in the same realm of productivity? This is right up there with Mickey Hatcher telling Troy Glaus to be more aggressive at the plate. Of course Erstad's offensive woes have nothing to do with coaching and little to do with approach- he just can't hit. Still, I don't think this is the kind of thing the coaching staff should be passing on to the youth. Let's just hope that Kotchman, Mathis, and McPherson just ignore this kind of talk and do what they do. Arron Sele is dropping hints that pitching out of the bullpen is somehow below him. He points out that over the first 11 years of his career he has only made one relief appearance. Well Arron, during the first 11 years of your career you were an effective pitcher- things change. The talk of a trade or release in Sele's future is heating up, and new Angels blogger "Black Hawk Waterloo" over at Chronicles of the Lads (hence forth known as "the Lads") suggests that Tampa Bay is the most likely destination. I would tend to agree, because the Rays are stupid enough to take on $3-4 million for a worthless pitcher, but I would also throw in St. Louis as a strong possibility. The Cards need pitching and can certainly afford to throw a couple million the Angel's way. I would think that if any team offered to pick up $1-2 million on Sele's $8 million contract, Stoneman would have Aaron on the next flight out of John Wayne. Wednesday, March 17, 200452-week lowIf you take a peek to your right you will see a new feature here at TPG called the "Market Watch." It stems from a small post I did several days ago that I had a lot of fun with, so it's here for the duration of spring training. Anyway, yesterday the "Market Watch" featured RHP Chris Bootcheck. Here's what I said: Bootcheck continued to struggle Tuesday, allowing 2 runs in his 2 innings of work. Once considered one of the Angels top prospects, he has now fallen behind other prospects such as Kevin Gregg, Ervin Santana, and Bobby Jenks. Basically the gist of it was that his stock was going down. I guess this blog has more influence than I thought because Transaction Guy reports that Bootcheck has been reassigned along with RHP Jason Middlebrook. Nightmares, Satan, and shockers There's nothing to write about as far as the Angels are concerned, or at least nothing to go on-and-on about (how do the Mariners bloggers do it?), so here are some more random thoughts from around the baseball world:
Tuesday, March 16, 2004Reunited and it feels so goodBartolo Colon faced his former team, the Chicago White Sox, for the first time since signing with Anaheim as a free-agent this offseason. The Angels won by the score of 9-7. Colon struggled in 3 1/3, giving up 3 runs on 6 hits. He struckout 2 while walking 2. He faced off against his good friend Esteban Loaiza who gave up 3 runs in his 5 innings of work. The Angels scored 6 runs in the 6th and 7th innings to secure the win. Troy Percival, who pitched one inning, got the win. Someone call the exorcist...Apparently Blogger didn't like my last post, and it decided to punish me by turning all the text on my site white. What a spiteful bitch you are, blogger. Any-hoo whatever is causing it seems to be negated by this post, so problem solved. Trades, TV, and blogsSome random thoughts:
Monday, March 15, 2004Another day, another blown saveFor the second straight day the Angels were unable to hold on to a ninth inning lead over the Padres, losing 2-1 in Peoria. John Lackey and Bobby Jenks held the Padres to just three hits through 8, but Jake Woods (0-1) was unable to close it out. Vladimir Gurerrero scored Anaheim's only run of the game when Troy Glaus pounded a double to left in the top of the fourth. Former Angel Bart Miadich (2-0) was credited with the win. The loss evens the Angel's record at 7-7. Nine reassignedThe Angels reassigned nine players to minor league camp after yesterday's final split-squad games. Outfielders Nick Gorneault and Tommy Murphy, pitchers Eric Cyr, Tim Bittner, and Rich Fischer, catchers Jared Abruzzo and Ryan Budde and infielders Erick Aybar and Alberto Callaspo will spend the rest of spring training at the Angel's minor league home in Mesa. Games there start on the 18th. Check out Future Angels for the details. Sunday, March 14, 2004Angels win, and loseAngels pitching kept the Brewers off the board through eight innings, as Anaheim breezed to a 9-2 victory in Phoenix. Scot Sheids started the game and threw three shutout innings. He was followed by Francisco Rogriguez, Kevin Ohme, Matt Hensley and Eric Cyr. The Angel's attack was powered by homeruns off the bats of Nick Gorneault and Wil Nieves and a two RBIs from Jeff Davanon. Brewers pitcher Chris Capuano was ver impressive in 4 1/3 innings of relief, allowing no runs and striking out 7. The loss was only Milwaukee's second of the spring. Meanwhile, back in Tempe, the rest of the Angels were taking on the San Diego Padres in a thriller. Jason Furmaniak hit a game winning 3-run homerun off Derick Turnbow, who's spring has been a nightmare (5 1/3 IP, 8 ER) thus far. The ninth-inning heroics lifted the visitors to a 6-5 win. Brian Specht continued his hot hitting, going 3 for 4. Rob Quinlan added 2 hits and a homerun in the defeat. The split brings the Angel's record to 7-6 in Cactus League play. The games were also the last split-squad games of spring, which means cuts and re-assignments are soon to follow. Let's play the market!Today the Angels play their last split-squad games and on Monday the first round of players will be re-assigned. Lets look at how some of the blue-chip stocks in the Angel's portfolio are performing so far this spring:
Saturday, March 13, 2004Angels pounded by RangersThe Halos were pounded by the Texas Rangers today, losing by the score of 13-2. Escobar started the game and struggled through two innings. He allowed 3 runs on 6 hits, including a Hank Blalock homerun in the top of the first. Tim Bittner fared no better in the third, allowing 5 runs (2 earned) and walking 2. Once again infield defence contributed in large part to the Angel's downfall. They totaled 4 errors which led to 7 unearned runs. Jose Guillen provided the lone bright spot for the Angels in the 4th inning when he slammed a ball over the centerfield wall, his third of the spring. The Rangers brought two familiar faces to Tempe- former Angels Brad Fullmer and Mickey Callaway are both in camp with Texas. Callaway pitched 4 perfect innings (2 Ks) while Fullmer went 2-4 with an RBI. With the loss the Angel's record falls to 6-5 this spring. The loss was the club's 4th straight. Friday, March 12, 2004Bavasi... been there, done thatThe Mariner blogosphere is in the middle of a civil war of sorts. The "optimists" (led by the aptly named Mariner Optimist) and the "pessimists" (led by the not quite as aptly named USS Mariner) are bickering over the future of the M's under Bill Bavasi. I don't particularly want to get caught in the cross-fire, but I do want to send my condolences to all involved. Angel fans had to deal with him for a few years, and now it's your turn. Just know that it is possible to overcome his ineptitude- we did it! He'll be gone in a few years and hopefully he will leave behind peices of a team that someone can pick up, glue together, and win you something. Just ride it out like we did. Now if you'll excuse me I have to get together with some A's fans and laugh for a few hours. Bad day for AngelsThe Angels suffered losses in two split-squad games today- one against Kansas City in Tempe, and one against the White Sox in Tucson. In Tempe the Angels sent Aaron Sele to mound. He struggled early, allowing two runs in the top of the first. The Angels responded however, scoring 4 runs of their own in the bottom of the inning. In the fourth inning Sele gave way to Kevin Gregg, who dominated the Royals lineup. He threw three hitless innings with two strikeouts. It was defensive lapses that ultimately lost the game for the Halos, as they committed fours errors which helped the Royals score six runs in the late innings. The final score ended up 8-5, with Turnbow suffering the loss. Meanwhile, in Tucson, a similar story was playing out. The Sox pounded Jarrod Washburn and Chris Bootcheck for eight runs in the first three innings, giving the sox an early 8-1 lead. The Angels did fight back, taking a lead in the top of the eighth. Left-hander Eric Cyr was unable to hold the lead, and the Sox responded with a 4-run bottom of the inning to take the lead for good. Former Angel Scott Schoeneweis (who is fighting for a spot in the Chicago rotation) pitched 4 effective innings. The final score was 9-12. The losses bring the Angels' Cactus League record to 6-4. Walking on sunshineSeveral people have brought to my attention that I forgot to consider intentional walks when I made the claim that "I would expect [Vladimir Guerrero] to draw 100 walks for the first time in his career this coming season." I must admit, I just plumb forgot about intentional walks. I went back and made some changes to my logic and this is what I came up with:
The new BB/PA number completely discounts all IBBs. As you can see, if his 2003 numbers hold, he will draw about 62 non-intentional walks this season. Add on the fact that it is unlikely that he will draw nearly as many IBBs batting ahead of Garret Anderson and Troy Glaus, and it becomes blatantly apparent to me that my "100 walk" claim is way off. In fact, it looks as if it is unlikely he will even match his career high of 84. How many IBBs will Gurrero draw this year? Hard to say, but Tim Salmon drew only 3 hitting ahead of Anderson last season. Of course 35-year old Salmon and 28-year old Guerrero are hardly comparable. I just don't see anyone walking Vlad to get to Anderson and Glaus, so he may only get walked to setup the double play. That is the beauty of the Halo's lineup this year. Fantasy Focus: Vladimir GuererroI originally wrote this article for my friends over at AngelsWin.com. It is the second in what I assume to be a long series (the first being Bartolo Colon) of fantasy breakdowns. Be sure to surf on over to their site- it's the best place for Halo fans on the net. The original can be found here. Guerrero landed in Anaheim in what was the surprise move of the off-season. The Angels were not considered players in the Guerrero sweepstakes after the signings of Escobar, Colon, and Guillen. But as the deal came down to the wire Arte Moreno and Bill Stoneman swooped in to out bid the Mets, Orioles, and Marlins. They used the depressed market to their advantage, grabbing Guererro for the bargain-basement sum of $70 million over five years. That may seem like a lot of money, but considering that Vlad is widely considered one of the five best hitters in baseball and just a few years ago seemed guaranteed to become a $20 million-a-year man, its a decent price. I can't imagine any scenario where by in five years the Angels will be disappointed by this deal.
In his 7 seasons in Montreal Guerrero established himself as one of the top hitters in the game today. His career numbers (.323/.390/.588) have drawn comparisons to legends such as Aaron, Mays, and DiMaggio. Indeed Guerrero's first 7 years have been among the best in history, and he seems destined to someday take his place next to those guys in Cooperstown. Of course, we all thought the same thing about Ken Griffey Jr, so lets not make travel plans yet. When healthy, Vlad is a nearly 40-40 man (he missed 40-40 by one homerun in 2002). His power is quickly becoming the stuff of legends- he can literally hit any pitch, in any location for a homerun at anytime. And he will hit any pitch. His long, violent swing is both the source of his tremendous power and the back problems that cost him a substantial part of the 2003 season. Here's the amazing fact about his power: at age 28 he has already had two 40-HR seasons (1999,2000), and one should assume that his power will continue to develop. If he stays healthy a 50-homerun season is not out of the realm of possibility. Health is the real question- will his back injury effect his offense? Looking at his second-half numbers from last season (.353, 17 HR), I’d say no. He put those numbers while wearing a back brace (he will continue to wear the brace this season as a precaution) that some feared would force him change his wild swing- it didn’t. It did slow him down on the base paths however, as he racked up only 9 steals. I think it’s likely that Guerrero has seen his last 40-steal season, but he is still a descent situational runner and should be good for 10-15 steals a season. The herniated disc in his back, which cost him 39 games last season, does not seem to be causing Guerrero any problems this spring. Neither he, nor the Angels, seem overly-concerned by the injury. However these back injuries have a habit of becoming chronic problems. Getting off the hard turf of Olympic Stadium should do him wonders, but I would not be surprised if he did miss a few games here-and-there. It will also help that the Angels have Tim Salmon who will be able to spell Guerrero in right field occasionally. Vlad has become famous for chasing pitches outside the strikezone. It is troubling, but who cares when he regularly crushes those pitches for homeruns? The only criticism many people have about his offense is the lack of patience. Actually the label of “free-swinger” might not be quite accurate:
The table shows that over the last two years his eye has greatly improved. His BB/PA went from .090 in 1999 to a very respectable .135 in 2003. I don’t know if there is anymore room for improvement, but the fact remains; Guererro has become a more patient hitter. I would expect him to draw 100 walks for the first time in his career this coming season. This greatly adds to his value as a fantasy player. The potency of the Angels lineup should also improve his fantasy value. People getting on base ahead of him means there will be plenty of RBI opportunities for Vlad this season. His career high in RBIs is 131 (in 1999), and he may get close to that number this season. Batting in front of Garret Anderson and Troy Glaus will help too. He should see more fastballs with the better protection, and that could lead to better power numbers. Of course his value in BA, SLG, and OBP are easy to see. Vlad has never hit below .300 in his career, his OBP hasn’t been lower then .370 in any of the last 6 years, and he hasn’t slugged below .560 in any of the last 6 years either. Don’t expect to see any change in that trend. Vlad should have many more .330/.420/.600 seasons ahead of him. Unfortunately, defensive stats aren’t included in fantasy baseball leagues. If they were it would be helpful to know that Vlad is probably has the most feared right-field arm in the game today. Did I say arm? I meant cannon! With Guerrero and Guillen in the outfield, not many teams are going to go first-to-third on the Angels this season. He also covers a fair amount of ground, although he does occasionally have trouble making the routine plays (.959 FPCT). Vladimir Guerrero is, without a doubt, one of the most valuable players in any fantasy league. He will give you excellent production in almost every offensive statistic: AVG, OBP, SLG, H, HR, RBI, R, and BB, and although he’s not the speed-demon he once was, his 10-15 steals should still be valuable to your team. All of this adds up to a high first round pick in most drafts. Thursday, March 11, 2004Guerrero, Glaus injured in victoryThe Angels shutout Arizona 5-0 on Thursday, limiting the D-Backs to just 4 hits. But the win was tempered by injuries to two of the Angels' superstars. Right fielder Vladimir Guerrero was hit by a pitch on the right arm, and left after the first inning. He was diagnosed with a brused forarm and is expected to play tomorrow. Third baseman Troy Glaus' injury is considered a bit more serious- he slipped while rounding second base in the fifth inning, spraining his right ankle. He is listed as day-today. Bartolo Colon threw 2 2/3 shutout innings (1 H, 2 K's, 1 BB) in his second spring start and got the win. The bullpen (Webber, Rodriguez, Jenks) was virtually untouchable in 5 2/3. The Halo's offense put four runs on the board in the first inning, including Darin Erstad and Jose Guillen homeruns. Brian Specht continued his hot hitting, driving in the fifth and final run with a single in the sixth. The win improves the Angels' record to 6-2 this spring. |
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