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Blog*Spot ArchivesContactRichard Ceccarelli Josh Mandir |
Monday, February 16, 2004New Faces part. 2Yesterday we looked over the new arms in the Angels rotation- now let’s take a look at the new bats in the lineup: Jose Guillen: Guillen comes over from the A’s after having a breakout season. He put up a .928 OPS despite playing injured for the last quarter of the season. Guillen set new career marks for every offensive statistic including homeruns (31), on base (.359), and slugging (.569). Many inside baseball had given up on Guillen after six seasons of high expectations. He’s the definition of a free swinger, striking out once very 5.3 at bats. If he keeps the power he’s showed last year it could make up for his anemic on-base, but that’s a big if. It seems likely to me that 2003 was as good as it’s going to get for this guy. He’s also a terrible defensive player, but makes up for it with one of the best arms in baseball. Look for Jose to revert back to old form putting up numbers in the .265/.320 OBP/.440 SLG range. His contract is $6 million over 2 years. That’s about market value and a lot of teams would have given him more in the hopes that ’03 was a sign of things to come. Vladimir Guerrero: This guy was on everybody’s radar and through an odd set of circumstances, he fell right into the Angels lap. There is little doubt that Vlad is one of the top five players in the game today. Just look at Baseball-Reference’s ‘most similar by age.’ You’ll see names like Willie Mays, Joe DiMaggio, and Hank Aaron, along with a slew of other Hall of Famers. What can you say about this guy? There is no weak link to his game- no red flags. His career numbers are:
Those are monstrous numbers to be sure- but his most impressive number is 27. This guy is only 27 years old! That means he’s still getting better! Toss in the fact that he’s a superb defender and has good speed on the base paths, you’ve got one of the best players of this generation- or any generation even. And as for his supposed health concerns- I just don’t buy it. He missed much of last season with a back problem, but he came back with a monster second half and getting off the hard turf of Olympic Stadium should quiet any doubters. The contract $70 million over 5 years. That’s a massive contract, but it’s right around market value. The years have worried some, but I just can’t dream-up a scenario where in 5 years the Angels are going to feel like they got taken for a ride. Let’s talk wins! Guillen and Guerrero will be taking at-bats that went to Spezio, Fulmer, and DaVannon last year. Those guys totaled 27 win shares that would equal 9 wins. Last season Guillen totaled 19 win shares and Vlad had 17 in his limited action. I’m going to account for Guillen’s fall back to earth by crediting him with 14 shares, and in a full season you could expect Guererro’s to rise to at least 25. So we’ll say 40 shares grand total equaling 13 wins. That’s 4 wins out of thin air! |
