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Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Scouting Report: Vladimir Guerrero

Bio:
Name:     Vladimir Alvino Guerrero
Birthday: February 9,1976 (29 on Opening Day) 
Height:   6'-3"
Weight:   205
Bats:     Right
Throws:   Right
Position: OF
Acquired: Free Agent (1/11/04)
Drafted:  n/a (Free Agent - D.R.)
Roster:   25-man
Contract: $70m/5 years, through 2008. Team option in 2009.
Stats(complete):
YEAR(L)   G   AB  R   H   2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS
----------|---|---|---|---|--|--|--|---|--|--|--|---|----|----|----|---
2000(MLB) 154 571 101 197 28 11 44 123 58 74 9  10  .345 .410 .664 1074
2001(MLB) 159 599 107 184 45 4  34 108 60 88 37 16  .307 .377 .566 943 
2002(MLB) 161 614 106 206 37 2  39 111 84 70 40 20  .336 .417 .593 1010
2003(MLB) 112 394 71  130 20 3  25 79  63 53 9  5   .330 .426 .586 1012 
2004(MLB) 156 612 124 206 39 2  39 126 52 74 15 3   .337 .391 .598 989 
----------|---|---|---|---|--|--|--|---|--|--|--|---|----|----|----|---
MLB TOTAL:11604375765 142126536 273828 43355813874  .325 .390 .589 979 
Hitting:
Coiled stance, closed to the pitcher with a long, violent stroke. Awesome power and contact ability. Guerrero’s defining trait is his superhuman ability to hit any pitch a pitcher can throw at him. To coin a phrase from Rex Huddler, Vlad will hit anything “from his nose to his toes.” The disturbing part is that his power respects no borders – he will hit towering homeruns on pitches at eye-level, in the dirt, and anywhere on (or off) the plate. So as you can imagine, taking pitches and drawing walks isn’t Vlad’s thing (nor should it be as long as he can hit like he did in 2004). Discounting intentional passes, his K/BB ratio was 74/38 and he only saw 3.17 pitches per plate appearance – good for dead last on a club full of free-swingers.
Defense/Baserunning:
Guerrero’s range in the field has been severely limited by back and leg injuries. He never had great positioning or instincts, but his speed more than made up for those deficiencies in the past. So much so, in fact, the Expos considered him to be an option in centerfield in the early years of his pro career. Those days are past. Nowadays his range in right must be considered sub-par. That’s not to say Guerrero is a defensive liability – his arm (the strongest, if not the most accurate, in the game) saves enough runs for the Angels you excuse the occasional gaff.

A former 40-40 threat, you can pretty well close the book on Vlad’s basestealing days for the same reasons as above. He’s also an extraordinarily stupid baserunner. He’ll get caught going first-to-third or stretching a single into a double often.
Outlook:
This was the hardest of the scouting reports to write. I mean, what can I say about Vlad that hasn't been said a hundred times before? Nothing, that's what. So I will simply say this: Vlad will be Vlad. As long as he’s healthy, I see no reason he won’t defend his MVP award. Projected line: .335/.390/.610, 45 HR
See the complete list of scouting reports here.

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