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Blog*Spot ArchivesContactRichard Ceccarelli Josh Mandir |
Wednesday, June 29, 2005On LackeyIt's possible we may have jinxed John Lackey today with all this talk about a long-term contract. I accept full blame. I know I said I was in favor of locking John up over in Rev's comment section, but after thinking about it for a little while, I realized that I may have been blinded by his impressive strikeout rate this season. And, sure enough, Lackey recorded another 9 in 5.2 innings of work today, effectively putting lipstick on a pig of a start. But as Lackey's K/9 has skyrocketed, several of his other peripherals have taken equally dramatic turns for the worse: Considering Lackey's relative success this season, it's almost unbelievable that he's allowing base runners at a greater rate than any previous time in his career. Of course he's also posting his lowest ever XBH% (and best CS%), explaining away the ERA.K/9 BB/9 OBP 2002 5.73 2.74 .323 2003 6.66 2.91 .339 2004 6.53 2.72 .335 2005 8.35 3.69 .344 So basically what I'm saying is, he's just as much of an enigma as ever, and the Angels are likely better off taking John to arbitration next season at the risk of having to pay out the ass when he hits the open market. Which they were going to do anyway. UPDATE: With the Angels' final out in his hands (and down to the final strike even), Run-Producing DMC comes through with a two run bomb to tie the game. What strikeouts? 6-6, BOT 9th GAME OVER: Angels lose in 12. Sure it sucks, but it's hard to be angry when you're 7.5 games up and you've spent the better part of the past week kicking the crap out of your closest opponent. The euphoria numbs you to the pain of losing a game like this. Comments:It loks like the increase in OBP is completely due to the increase in walks. As a matter of fact, his batting average allowed is .266 (plus whatever this game has changed it to), which is similar to his 2002 BAA, while in 2003 and 2004 his BAA was .278. It seems like his walks have more or less increased with his K's, which is something that should be expected. Yes, but trading strikeouts for walks is not something that should be slighted as insignificant. What happens if he starts giving up homeruns at his normal pace again? I am not saying that it is insignificant, just that the listing the BB/9 and OBP increases is essentially showing the same stat change twice. Not really, because as K/9 rises you expect BAA to drop, thus lowering OBP. What it shows is that, at the moment, the K's aren't worth the BB's. Then it would be more accurate to show the K/9, the BB/9, the BAA, and then the OBP. Showing BB/9 and OBP without the context of BAA is not giving the full story. And his K/BB ratio is not that different (2.26 this year, 2.40 last year, 2.29 in '03 and 2.09 in '02). "And his K/BB ratio is not that different (2.26 this year, 2.40 last year, 2.29 in '03 and 2.09 in '02)." Which is precisely the problem. I guess what I am saying is that I don't see the OBP and K/BB as dramatic turns for the worse...worse certainly, dramatic probably not. Of course, after tonight's game he is at 8.70 K/9, 3.57 BB/9, 2.44 K/BB, .290 BAA, and .367 OBP. One peripheral he has improved a lot (changed from the last two years and is comparable with his rookie year) is his groundball/flyball ratio, which is at 1.29 (1.11 in '04, 1.07 in '03, 1.31 in '02). That is probably the biggest contributor to his decrease of extra base hits. Let me extrapolate a bit here. When both K's and BB's are going up, it probably means he's throwing more breaking stuff out of the zone that hitters aren't yet expecting. I would be concerned that next year they get a bead on him and stop swinging at this -- meaning his walks will really zoom up and his K's will plummet. |
