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Wednesday, August 24, 2005

We've come a long way, baby

Current Bill James Cy Young standings, AL:
B.Colon    150.75
M.Rivera   140.80
M.Buehrle  137.51
J.Garland  131.44
J.Nathan   124.94
At this point last season we were celebrating the fact that Bart had managed two decent starts in a row.

UPDATE: I should note for those of you who haven't read the associated article by Bill James ("E=M Cy Squared", found in the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers) that the formula does not purport to find the player most deserving of winning the award. Rather, it's an attempt to predict who will win the award. Thus, like every good sports writer, the formula overvalues team performance.

Comments:


How accurate have these Cy Young standings been in the past?

posted by Blogger Unknown @ 7:58 AM
From 1956 to 2002, the formula has correctly predicted the winner 80% of the time (according to the book). Don't know how it did the last couple of seasons, and I'm too lazy to do the math.

posted by Blogger Richard @ 8:40 AM
Sounds like a pretty solid formula, then.

posted by Blogger Unknown @ 11:03 AM