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Tuesday, September 06, 2005

What I have learned about Hurricane Katrina

As I was out of town and in essentially a news void for about a week ending Wednesday, I really did not know the scope of what had happened until about Thursday.  Sure, I had heard that there was a hurricane that might hit New Orleans and then after it did I heard that there was flooding...I had no idea what was actually going on.  So, this weekend, in addition to catching up on other things (expect a follow up to this post soon), I decided to find out what I could about the hurricane.  In the process, The Corner pointed me here which gives a great, in-depth timeline of events and is the basis in part or whole of a lot of these points.

First of all, I would like to say that the scope of this disaster could not be truly comprehended by the lay person until it actually happens.  People may have talked about New Orleans flooding before, but very few people take it seriously.  This is just like the 9/11 attacks: sure, al-Qaeda was a problem but no one seriously ever thought that they could hit us like that until they actually did.  Therefore, no one should really be blamed in the prelude to the hurricane...everyone makes mistakes, sometimes those mistakes have tragic consequences.

This case was particular devastating because, unlike normal floods (those of rivers), the water will not recede...not unless the ocean is dropped by 20 feet, anyways.  Also, the reason that this New Orleans devastation can be considered a "national disaster" (as opposed to a "local" disaster) is because of the particular economic activity that occurs in and around New Orleans, namely importation and refinement of oil.

  • From all accounts, it sounds like the people of New Orleans, at least analytically, knew of the potential for the city's destruction to a big enough hurricane, but they probably never believed it would occur.  This is much like the people LA expecting the "The Big One" of an earthquake.  Logically, they know it could happen, but most people think of it as an impossibility.

  • The federal government had a responsibility to let Louisiana know about what kind of risks are associated with a city being below sea level and to tell them what portions were and how much they were.  The federal government also studied the pumps and pipes and declared them inadequate against a major hurricane.  Later, a computer simulation was run showing that New Orleans would fill with water when hit by a Category 4 hurricane.

  • The New Orleans Emergency Preparedness Plan mentions about hurricanes that the Governor has the authority to "compel" an evacuation of any areas potentially affected and the Mayor of New Orleans has the authority to order the evacuation of the New Orleans parishes specifically.  The Mayor of New Orleans is chiefly responsible for the evacuation.  Also, the plan mentions specifically that buses can be used to aid in the evacuation.

  • The President urged the Governor to call for the evacuation ahead of time.  He also declared several states disaster areas before they hit in order to aid the flow of money when it would be needed.  

  • The weather reports stated that people should basically be evacuated by Sunday night.  The Mayor orders an evacuation that night, but does not "compel" it, meaning that he is not making sure everyone gets out of town.  Meanwhile, National Guardsmen are waiting to be called upon so that they might help with the evacuation and several hundred school buses sit in parking lots.

  • When the hurricane hit, pumps failed and levees broke.  This washed out some evacuation routes and began the flooding of the city.  At this point there was no real ability to conduct law enforcement or evacuate people in a timely fashion.  Not to mention, those buses were suddenly flooded, meaning they could not be used for evacuation at all...they sat simply as a wasted resource.  New Orleans, as we know it, was totally destroyed.  The Mayor declared martial law, for whatever good that could do at that point.

  • Lt. Gen. Honore lead the post-storm evacuation and re-supply effort, which the media (and Mayor Nagin) seems to claim was much later than it should have been, whereas many people familiar with disaster response say that this was a surprisingly quick response...especially for the size and scope.

  • Meanwhile, many people began looting: some did it for food and water, while others did it for more stuff (TVs, drugs, etc.).  Also, there were reports of rapes and shootings, among many other things.  Dead bodies were seen floating in water.  People are stuck in attics.  The people who thought the Superdome would be a good place to evacuate to were wrong.  It would be a good place for any small hurricane, but because of the potential for flooding, loss of power, and loss of ability to pump water, the Superdome became a horrendous place to be.

  • Of course, there are also many stories of people helping other people out: many let strangers stay in their homes or gave them money.  Not to mention, the amount of charity being given to help out in disaster relief.  Several sports stars are offering money and asking others to do the same.  Kuwait has pledged $500 million to our efforts, while Qatar has pledged $100 million.  Germany has offered their assistance if it is required.  And this is just the tip of the iceberg.

  • And then the media has (and the Mayor of NO) have been quick to blame Bush for the emergency response, which, by all accounts by people who have done this before, was phenomenal.  Others have blamed global warming for more and stronger hurricanes (despite no evidence to support that).  

  • As far as the future is concerned, it seems like rebuilding the city is a necessity.  Is it economically worth it?  Could we just build a big city that is a New New Orleans behind the filled in bowl?  I can't answer these questions, but I haven't even seen anyone ask them.  As it is, you have to wonder if any buildings that were flooded are ever going to be safe again.  And after the liquid is drained, there will still likely be sewage and oil that ends up sitting on the ground, in houses, everywhere.  This won't be something where people can just move back in when the water is gone...almost the entire city will have to be rebuilt.  By the time everything is rebuilt, much of the oil importation and refining will have moved to other locales purely by necessity.  

Anyways, I know that is a little long, but I feel that it needs to be said more often than not that no individual person is to blame for the thousands dead.  That being said, there were obviously mistakes made, and it was the responsibility of the Governor of Louisiana and the Mayor of New Orleans to compel (by force, if necessary) people to leave the city.  They did not judge this hurricane as being a hazard of this magnitude, and now the Mayor is blaming everyone except himself, while the media seems to be trying to blame Bush.

Comments:


Have you and Richard lost your minds?

What about the fact that he spent three days touring the country before he visited the Gulf Coast? Is that not a failure?

How could he take 3 days for the Hurricane and leave Crawford immediately for Schiavo?

And what about the people at the convention center who did not recieve food and water for 5 days? Why is it that Rumsfeld says 1 8 helicopted batalion can run thousands of sorties and yet those people could not get an air drop of supplies?

Why were they turned around when they tried to leave the area?

There is gross failure at all levels, mainly at the federal level. The Governor has yet to officially sign off on federalizing the situation and yet the Armed Forces are conducting missions because Bush authorized them to. Why did it take so long for Bush to just forget what the Governor says and act on his own accord.

You guys need to let go of your partisanship and really look at the situation on face value; a disaster at ALL levels. That you are trying to compare the failures made on 9/11 to a hurricane that was known days in advanced is a complete error in comprehensive thought.

Looks like that MP was right all along, huh Richard?

posted by Blogger Genaro @ 12:13 AM
It was a failure at the local level. The feds are responding in a decent timeline - but the space betwen the hurricane and the arrival of the feds was not bridged by the city state or county (if they even have counties).

The finger pointing toward washington is so strident by the locals because their culpability is so raw, obvious.

And who is going to have their greasy hands out for the federal rebuilding contracts? The same local leadership who abandoned its poor and its jewel of a city.

Disgusting.

posted by Anonymous Anonymous @ 12:27 AM
It was a failure at all levels and one that was many years in the making.

[FEDERAL] So far people aren't talking about the National Hurricane Center, but let's face it, their "chicken little" hurricane warnings over the past 20 years have not helped. They knew this one was different, but they couldn't convey that to officials or the general public. They said it was a category 5, then 4, hurricane, but people in the region knew Andrew was Category 5 and Charley was a 4. These hurricanes were nothing compared with Katrina, but the NHC couldn't get that message across.

One of the levees that burst was apparently only recently upgraded. What does that say about the people doing that work? And, what about the government officials overseeing this work?

[LOCAL] How could you plan - PLAN - to use the Superdome for an evacuation center, but not think to store sufficient food and water - WATER for God's sake. Do you think they have sufficient water in there when 70,000 people come to see a football game? How could you not have arranged security? How could you not have a maintenance team to keep the bathrooms usable? And, what sort of police force do you have when nearly 1000 (of 1600) officers quits when they're most needed. The contrast with the FDNY couldn't be more stark.

[STATE] If you know that you have a large number of National Guardsmen in Iraq, how can you NOT have made provisions to borrow some from other states (e.g. Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, whatever). If you know that your emergency plans for your biggest city call for its total evacuation, how can you not have planned how to get the people out and where to put them?

[FEDERAL] You were in charge on Sep 11 and have spent 4 years warning about the potential of a major catastrophe hitting one of our cities. You continuously talk about the possibility. Yet, you are completely dumfounded by a storm that was flagged well in advance. Nobody in the Federal Government seems to watch t.v. and there seems to have been precious little preparation for the kind of interaction and cooperation with state and local forces that will guarantee good communications in the event of a disaster.

I don't know. There is so much blame here to share around that blaming Bush is insufficient. They've all failed. Completely.

This would be the equivalent of the $200m NY Yankees finishing in last place 25 games out. Best resources, abysmal performance.

posted by Blogger Eagle @ 2:07 AM
Don'r forget the contributions of France: they sent us 1000 cots.

Eagle,

The Yankees don't need to finish 25 games out. They just need to be one game below the Indians.

posted by Blogger LargeBill @ 8:26 AM