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Wednesday, December 07, 2005
Offseason Pre(?)view
Pearly Gates presents: two idiots talking about baseball!
JOSH: Let's start this off with the 2005 team. The Angels have 6 free agents (Byrd, Jason Christiansen, Lou Merloni, Flying Molina the Elder, Salmon, and Wash) in a pretty weak free agent pool. Do you want and/or expect them to retain any of these guys?
RICHARD: That "weak free agent pool" is exactly why I don't expect any of those guys to return, with the possible exception of Byrd. Molina and Washburn are both decent enough ballplayers, but in this market, they're going to be priced right out of the Angels' plan. I would think that Byrd is the only one the Angels would make a serious offer to, but even then, it's doubtful they're willing to long-term a 35-year old with young arms on the way and a system full of trade-bait.
J: Agreed. I also expect them to make a semi-serious offer for Tim Salmon, if only so he can be a pinch hitter/DH/reserve OF for about 200 AB. I don't expect Salmon to sign to play that little, though.
R: The only problem is, I don't think anyone knows what a "serious" offer for Tim Salmon would be. I can't imagine a team offering more than the minimum for a 38 year-old who hasn't played in a year and a half. Will Salmon accept that? Should he accept that?
J: I can imagine some non-contending young teams offering something more (such as the Devil Rays, who now have Maddon as a manager, and a history of signing vets at the ends of their careers). I can also see something like a heavily incentive-laden contract offered. However, I don't really think that Salmon wants to play outside of southern California and Arizona, so that would severely limit options. My guess is that the Angels bring him to spring training on a minor league contract if he still wants one more shot, and trying to stick him in the front office (or as a coach) in some capacity if he ends up retiring.
R: I hope you're right... I don't know if I can stand to see Tim in another team's colors.
J: With all of the talk that the Angels are trying to pick up Manny Ramirez and/or Paul Konerko, it seems the Angels are pretty set on picking up a big name this offseason. What player would you like the team to pick up through free agency or trade and what kind of prospects would you give up (whether through the trade or potentially being blocked) for him?
R: Konerko's line away from Comiskey (.276/.371/.492) scares me. He would be an improvement over Erstad of course. He's a good hitter - not a great one. I'd prefer the Angels stay away from him and give Kotchman (who very well may out-produce Konerko sooner rather than later) a chance.
As for Manny, I would be very pleased to see him in a Halo's uniform. He would instantly turn the Angels' outfield from a negative to a big positive - one of the best in the game, even with Finley in center.
The problem with Manny, however, is that the price tag is sure to be outrageous. I've got no problem with the Angels dealing from their position of strength (far from it, in fact), but I can't see dealing more than one of the system's upper-echelon prospects for the privilege of taking on a contract the size of Manny's. Either the Sox are going to have to eat most of that money, or the prospect package would have to be something along the lines of Aybar/Shell and a reliever.
J: Well, I technically meant any player that could possibly be available, not just between Konerko and Manny. Honestly, though, I think those two are the only top bats that are going to be available for anything approximating a reasonable price. With that said, Konerko definitely would limit the Angels more in their youth movement. They already have three guys on the team making more than $10 million a year, it would be tough to add a fourth when his position could easily be taken by someone making the league minimum. Especially if they plan to keep Escobar after this season, since he will likely get above $10 million a year if he stays healthy. As far as Manny goes, I could only see it happening if the Angels get rid of Finley in the process. That would reduce what is left on Manny's contract from almost $60 million to just above $50 million in terms of guaranteed contracts. Manny also would not block anyone for at least two years. I actually support the position that the Angels should not try for the big name this year...they did it the last two, and it is time to take a break.
R: I would agree that the Angels need to go for the right name rather than just a big name, but clubs with the Angels' resources should never take "breaks" from acquiring great players.
Now onto a player who is most definitely not great: will Darin Erstad be playing first base for the Angels next season?
J: The short answer is "Yes."
The long answer is that I expect him to start at 1st, but practice the OF in Spring Training. I don't really expect Ersty to be traded, unless it is as part of a salary dump to get someone like Manny. Kotchman has shown he deserves to be on the team, but he is so young I don't think the team is really concerned with him starting in Triple A again. First major injury, though, and Kotch gets called up, Figgins fills in for that guy, and Ersty moves to CF or LF.
R: Yeah, I don't see much chance of him being traded either. And Ersty back in center doesn't seem too likely, because where does that leave Old Man Finley and Chone Figgins (not to mention Erstad's health problems)? You have a similar problem in left with Anderson and Rivera.
The Angels would be better off biting the bullet on Finley and Erstad, I think.
J: So, Erstad remains on the team, but what about Steve Finley? Is he just trade bait, given another chance, or cut loose?
R: The Angels can't keep him around with Chone Figgins still sans-position - especially if the club adds another outfield bat. I say Arte eats it.
J: Agreed. I think that he could be used in a trade so that the other team doesn't have to contribute any money or he is cut by the end of spring training.
R: We can only hope.
Let's go from a washed-up old man to some up-and-coming youngsters: do any of Brandon Wood, Howie Kendrick, Kendry Morales, or Jered Weaver get a shot in 2006?
J: Barring injuries, I think that Weaver is the only one that has a realistic shot at an appearance before September. Despite the fact that Wood, Kendrick, and Morales are probably the top three hitters in the farm system, each has guys in front of them in the majors and the minors. Also, the Angels rarely seem to try to force their guys through quickly.Weaver, however, could theoretically fill a reliever or SP hole not filled in the offseason.
R: I would tend to agree that Weaver is the most likely to win a spot. The funny thing is, I think Weaver is the least ready for big league action. And don't sell the other guys short - if Wood comes out hitting again in 2006, or if Kendry continues the success he showed at the end of '05, the Angels will make space for them (3B, DH?).
J: Well, I don't mean to sell them short, I am very high on them actually. I just don't think of the Angels as an organization are going to push these guys to the majors until late 2006 or later. Speaking of who will be on the team and when, what do you see as the starting lineups in April and September?
R: Impossible to say. So many different scenarios could play themselves out between now and opening day, not just with new arrivals and departures, but with players switching positions. If I had to guess, I'd say the roster doesn't change much at all, but there's some shuffling position-wise:
C. Figgins, CF
O. Cabrera, SS
G. Anderson, DH
V. Guererro, RF
D. McPherson, 3B
D. Erstad, LF
C. Kotchman, 1B
J. Molina/Mathis/Ausmus?, C
A. Kennedy, 2B
Of course, we could also see the roster turned upside-down. Who knows?
J: I pretty much agree with your thoughts on the line up (except, where did you pull out Ausmus from?).
R: Well someone has to strap on the tools of ignorance, and Ausmus is the biggest (if not the best) name on a short list.
Are you satisfied with Molina/Mathis, or do you think the Angels need an insurance policy behind the plate?
J: I am perfectly fine accepting a Jose Molina/Jeff Mathis tandem. Mathis is bound for the bigs some day soon and he might as well start now. The Angels could start the season with four major non-pitchers having under 1 full season in the majors (McPherson, Kotchman, Quinlan, and Mathis). Of course, in 2007 and 2008, some combination of Wood, Morales, Kendrick, Aybar, and/or Callaspo will be starting for the team as well...so we might as well see what these first four can do now.
R: I'd really be more comfortable with some kind of insurance policy. The latest rumor is Johny Estrada - that should make for an interesting locker-room.
J: Yeah, I don't think Estrada would be too happy on the Angels. I don't really have any more questions, any closing thoughts on the offseason?
R: Closing thoughts? How about some closing hopes? Here's hoping that the Angels' bad contracts don't stop them from bringing in the help they need. (And here's hoping that those names aren't bad contracts in of themselves.) I'm not at all convinced that Bill Stoneman has any kind of long-term plan for this club - here's hoping he proves me wrong this offseason.
J My closing hope is for Stoneman to do the minimal amount of GMing this winter. I don't mind if he explores and finds that great deal (like Vlad two years ago), but the offense will be better next season even if nothing is done. I feel that the team should try a rebuild-rebuild-on-the-fly method this season, with Dallas, Kotchy, Mathis, and Quinlan contributing to 3+ positions on an every day basis. If the team waits too long to move towards the young, cheap, and talented guys, they will be forced to overpay for veterans every year or suddenly start 7 different position players that have less than 2 years of major league experience.
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