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Friday, November 05, 2004The continuing search for mad props...The media has finally called Iowa for Bush, so I figured this is a good time to look back on the predictions I made a few days before the election. Here's my electoral map:  And here's the actual map:  Not too shabby. I only missed by two states, two electoral votes, and two percentage points in the popular vote. To tell you the truth, I never really thought that Kerry was going to win Colorado. The problem was that I wanted to keep Bush's votes in the 280-290 range (don't ask me why- it just sounded right) and I couldn't get the math to work. I was 100% positive that Bush would carry Wisconsin, so Colorado became the easiest state to drop from his column. ********** Perhaps my boldest prediction: "Libertarian Candidate Michael Badnarik will finish third in the national popular vote- just ahead of Ralph Nader." Darn! Just missed! Badnarik finished fourth in the national popular vote, with a respectable 381,235 votes- just 18,507 votes behind Ralph Nader. (I demand a recount!) I made that pick based on the assumption that much of the anti-war Republican vote would fall to Badnarik. Granted, that is a very small constituency, but surely it's larger than the coveted pot-head/Seattle coffeehouse/mental ward vote that makes up Nader's base, right? I guess not. (That, and he was on far more states' ballots than was Nader.) ********** My Senate predictions held-up pretty well. I only missed the Alaska race, in which Lisa Murkowski came back from the dead to beat Tony Knowles (and I've never been happier to be proven wrong!). Also, I believe mad props are in order for my call of the Louisiana race, where I correctly predicted that David Vitter would win without the formality of a run-off. That was by no means a foregone conclusion, and I didn't see many other bloggers going out on that limb. ********** As for my House prediction: "Republicans will gain four seats in the House (due in large part to multiple successes in the state of Texas), bringing their majority to 231-204." Wow... eerie... UPDATE: A reader points out that Jennifer Tilly was, in fact, an ardent Dennis Kucinich supporter, and presumably not a Nader supporter. Obviously there's no way to confirm that, so just to be on the safe side, I've removed her name and replaced it with something a bit more appropriate. |
