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Blog*Spot ArchivesContactRichard Ceccarelli Josh Mandir |
Monday, August 01, 2005On Lackey (revisited)After Lackey's recent near complete game shut out (*gurmble* should have been left in *grumble*), I decided to look at Lackey's stats similar to how Richard did way back at the end of June. We had a discussion over K and BB rates and what they mean. Richard was figuring that the walks would probably increase more and more as people stop swinging at his breaking ball, which would probably cause him to start throwing more fastballs and a regression to what he used to be like.
Over his last 7 starts, Lackey has pitched 45.2 innings. During this time he has given up 18 runs (ERA 3.55), although 16 of those runs came in 3 games in a row which he gave up 8 or more hits. That means in the other 4 games he has given up 2 runs in 27.1 innings. As far as his peripherals go, he has had 59 Ks (K/9 11.23), given up 8 walks (BB/9 1.58; K/BB 7.13), and given up 42 hits (WHIP 1.09), with 25 of those coming in the aforementioned 3 games. Now, I am cherry picking these games somewhat, but before these 7 games, he would alternate between low K's-high walks, low K's-low walks, high K's-high walks, and high K's-low walks. In the last 7 games he has given up 2 walks just twice, and just 1 walk 4 times (the other game was no walks), while striking out 6 or more batters each game (9 thrice, 10 once, and 7 twice). Of course, Lackey is still suspectible to the big inning as those three bad games attest to, but it is largely due to him giving up hits rather than a couple of walks and a couple of hits. This by no means proves Richard's prediction that people will stop swinging at Lackey's breaking pitch and then he will be shit out of luck is wrong, but it does show that his peripherals are improving in the same way his ERA has been. Lackey will be the staff ace before August is done. His new lines are K/9 = 9.18; BB/9 = 3.08; K/BB = 2.98; BAA = .263; OBP = .331; OPS = .701; G/F = 1.37 |
