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Tuesday, August 02, 2005O's 1, Angels 10Something I'd like to see (but have no inclination to do myself) is a study relating "speed stats" (stolen bases, infield hits) to defensive errors directly resulting in that player reaching base ("reached on error"). We hear it all the time from commentators of all sorts - "speed puts pressure on the defense, blah blah blah…" and it would seem to make sense in passing. I'm curious to see if the numbers bear that out, and if so, how large of an effect does it have? Of course, now that I'm thinking about it, I see the major flaw: errors are completely subjective. Still, if you were to look at enough players, a pattern might make itself known. I don't know. This is the rambling you get after a blowout victory that doesn't leave me much else to talk about. Comments:I never understood the thinking of putting the losing score first just because they are the road team... Errors are subjective, but on-base percentage is not. If it's true that speed puts pressure on defenses, then it should be possible to determine this by removing walks from the on-base percentage and checking the stats. Yes? Winning score first. Separately, I believe there is some truth to the thought that speed puts pressure on fielders. Teams go over scouting reports before each series. They know which players hustle down the line and which ones half-ass jog on grounders. Anecdotally, watching Sizemore for Cleveland I've seen this theory in action. I (unfortunately living in Cincinnati due to marriage) don't see too many games but I've seen more than a couple times where a fielder made an error because he rushed his throw knowing Sizemore was running hard. My thinking is that in America scores are read "Team A @ Team B", so home teams always come second (except for soccer). In boxscores or on those rotating scores at the bottom of the screen, but in newspapers articles, stories and conversations it is always winning team-losing team (you never say, they lost 2-5, you say they lost 5-2). I do find it acceptable to do road team-home team, but it never looks right if the road team lost. Eagle- By "putting pressure on the defense" I'm referring specifically to forcing the defense into errors (this stems from a play in last night's Angel game, in which Melvin Mora made a exceedingly poor play in his rush to get Chone Figgins). Besides, removing the walks from OBP (which doesn’t include reaching on an error, btw) will basically give you batting average. Asking if fast players have higher batting averages is neither here nor there. Funny enough, it's been so many years since I lived in the US that the whole OBP usage happened after I left. I remember people used to mention it, but it wasn't a stat that was not generally calculated. It was more of a theoretical stat. And, I would have sworn that the theory included reaching on errors and on passed balls on strike 3. If OBP doesn't include reaching on an error, then I have no use for that stat. I want to know how many times does a guy get on base safely. I think it should even include FC when nobody ends up out (you know, like when a guy bunts and they try for the lead runner and end up getting nobody). That can also be influenced by speed. it wasn't a stat that was not generally calculated Should be it was a state that was not generally calculated. |
